Tuesday, December 12, 2017

The GOP Has Bigger Problems Than Trump and Roy Moore

President Trump and Roy Moore’s behavior give Republicans plenty to worry about between now and 2020, but what should really be keeping them up at night are the longer-term effects of the Trump era on young voters and the enduring demographic trends those voters represent.
Though older Americans may eventually look back on Trump as a temporary national trauma, younger Americans in the Millennial and Z generations will likely carry the scars for life. Research has shown that significant experiences during people’s “critical periods”—roughly the ages of 14 to 24—typically have an outsized and enduring effect on their preferences and way of seeing the world. After 30 or so, the impact of events decreases substantially, and by the time a person reaches middle age, short of Armageddon, events do not change a person’s preferences or worldview. This means that the impact of Trump’s boorish behavior and his deep unpopularity may permanently steer the younger generations clear of the Republican Party.
This effect may be particularly powerful among women. The lewdness too often displayed by political leaders is certainly not specific to one party, but the repercussions will be more serious for Republicans. Al Franken and John Conyers’ inappropriate behavior will likely end with their resignations, but Trump’s mistreatment of women continues to generate news coverage more than a year after the infamous Access Hollywood video.

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