Sunday, December 11, 2016

Will Obamacare Repeal Really Leave 30 Million without Insurance?

Repeal and replace.  That was and still is the Donald Trump promise for Obamacare.  Congressional Republicans are ready to join in.  Not that they haven't been trying for the past six years, with over 60 attempts at repeal at the congressional level, all quickly dispatched by the Obama veto pen.

Now that there is a new sheriff in town, the veto threat is gone.  Repeal and replace may actually happen.  What will it mean?

In my local paper, The Denver Post, is an article, written not by anyone at The Denver Post, but instead by The Associated Press, claiming that 30 million people will lose their health insurance if Obamacare is repealed.  The article describes a recent study from the Urban Institute looking at the scenario of repeal only – no replacement – and predicts an increase of 30 million uninsured people over the next three years.

More specifically, the article notes that the number of uninsured would double, from about 30 to 60 million with "repeal without replacement" between now and 2019.  Several points are noteworthy.

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