Traders are watching to see if any surprises show up in the October
employment report, the last before the election, but the real surprise
could come in the November number when the aftereffects of Super Storm
Sandy are felt in the job market.
Economists expect the October report to show a tepid 125,000 new nonfarm payrolls and a steady unemployment rate of 7.8 percent, according to Reuters. The report has been considered key since it is the final report card on job growth ahead of Tuesday’s presidential election, and expectations are low.
Read more: http://www.cnbc.com/id/49628327
Economists expect the October report to show a tepid 125,000 new nonfarm payrolls and a steady unemployment rate of 7.8 percent, according to Reuters. The report has been considered key since it is the final report card on job growth ahead of Tuesday’s presidential election, and expectations are low.
But
it also may be the one to watch ahead of November’s report, when some
economists think the impact from Sandy will result in less hiring,
despite the need for construction and other workers in the storm hit
east coast corridor. Estimates of economic impact from
Sandy are as high as $50 billion, and Eqecat Thursday said it now
expects insured damage to total $10 to $20 billion, with 64 percent of
the losses in New York and New Jersey.
“We
won’t see the effect of hurricane Sandy or storm Sandy (in the October
report)…It won’t show up because the survey was taken before the
disaster hit,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial.
“Any
interruption to hours worked and hourly workers, it would be somewhat
offset in the month of November by the increase in overtime for
emergency workers and with the increase with construction workers coming
in. It redistributes employment because of the need to get things up
and running as quickly as possible. It ends up being winners and
losers,” she said.
Swonk said the storm will provide some fiscal stimulus as
aid money pours into the hard hit areas of the east coast, particularly
the New Jersey coast and New York City and Long Island. “There will be
some enormous government investment outlays from Sandy. That money is
literally being dropped from the skies, from helicopters. How it shows
up in the numbers has yet to be seen because there are offsets.”
Read more: http://www.cnbc.com/id/49628327
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