Wednesday, October 31, 2012

HOW FAR WILL OBAMA GO TO WIN?

We are one week out from Election Day 2012 as I write this piece. Tropical storm Sandy has ravaged much of the north eastern sea board including New York, New Jersey, Virginia and the New England states. Millions are under water and/or without power. Officials are predicting up to 10 days to restore power and longer than that to get life back to normal in the affected areas.
I’ll come back to this problem in a moment…
The Obama campaign is in huge trouble, dropping 22 points since 2008 in early voting results across the country and running behind Romney 52-45% according to the most recent Gallup poll. If you think that they were not anticipating and preparing for a tough re-election bid after four years of disastrous administrative failures in every facet of the administrations responsibilities, think again.
At this point in 2008, Obama was massacring John McCain in early voting by a 55-40% margin, with 33% of voters voting early in both elections. McCain closed the gap to 3 points on Election Day 2008 and went on to lose by 7 points in the end.
If Romney really is ahead by 7 points at this stage of the race, Obama could lose big time on November 6th. However, there is no way to have any real confidence in the Gallup poll and even more concerning is the methods by which Obama has plotted to win, even if Romney and Ryan defeat him in the national popular vote.

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