Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Unemployment vs. Gasoline Usage Analysis


General Comments


  • Gasoline usage is the same as it was in 2001 or 2002, depending on the month.
  • Petroleum usage is the same as it was in 1997 or 1998, depending on the month.
  • Gallons per mile did not suddenly improve in 2007. Thus declining gasoline usage cannot be attributed to improved gas mileage, cash for clunkers, etc.
  • There was a rebound in June and July of 2010 consistent with the economic recovery. For August alone there was rebound in 2010 and 2011.
  • Based on gasoline usage, the economy has stalled or there is some other force in play, not related to improved gas mileage.

Jobs, Demographics, Attitudes

  • Those who are unemployed do not drive many miles.
  • People back in school or hiding out in school hoping to get a job later do not drive many miles.
  • Those who want a job and need a job but instead retired to have money coming in from Social Security do not drive many miles.
  • Those on disability do not drive many miles.
  • The commercial real estate boom which lasted another year or two after housing died came crashing to earth in 2007. Construction and stocking of the final commercial real estate build-out took a lot of gasoline and diesel. That fact explains the last push higher in June and July of 2007.
  • Attitudes of millennials towards cars and transportation vs. their boomer parents have come into play.
  • Because of the economy, people are taking vacations closer to home, driving fewer miles to do so.

Gasoline usage mirrors the weak recovery in jobs. Forget about the falling unemployment rate because the rest of the Household Survey tells the real story.

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