The big monthly news this week was that inflation took off, with sharp
increases in both producer and consumer prices, while industrial
production and capacity utilization fell just as sharply. Retail sales
rose slightly more than gasoline prices, but June and July were revised
down slightly. Consumer sentiment improved sharply, and in particular
expectations, one of the 10 components of the LEI.
The high frequency weekly indicators should show turns before they show up in monthly or quarterly data. Most of these remain quite positive, although employment indicators are concerning, and gas prices are at the highest levels ever for this time of year. Let's start once again with them.
The energy choke collar is solidly engaged, but gasoline usage is holding up:
Gasoline prices rose yet again last week, up $.01 from $3.84 to $3.85. Gas prices have risen $0.49 since their early July bottom, and are now only $0.09 cheaper than at their highest point this spring.Oil prices per barrel rose from $96.42 to $99.00. Gasoline usage was slightly negative on a YoY basis. For one week, it was 8695 M gallons vs. 8848 M a year ago, down -1.7%. The 4 week average at 9004 M vs. 9011 M one year ago, was essentially unchanged.
The high frequency weekly indicators should show turns before they show up in monthly or quarterly data. Most of these remain quite positive, although employment indicators are concerning, and gas prices are at the highest levels ever for this time of year. Let's start once again with them.
The energy choke collar is solidly engaged, but gasoline usage is holding up:
Gasoline prices rose yet again last week, up $.01 from $3.84 to $3.85. Gas prices have risen $0.49 since their early July bottom, and are now only $0.09 cheaper than at their highest point this spring.Oil prices per barrel rose from $96.42 to $99.00. Gasoline usage was slightly negative on a YoY basis. For one week, it was 8695 M gallons vs. 8848 M a year ago, down -1.7%. The 4 week average at 9004 M vs. 9011 M one year ago, was essentially unchanged.
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