Tuesday, September 11, 2012

German domino theory and book-cooking

There are two fairly important bits to this story in Der Spiegel.
One, that Merkel wants to avoid a Grexit for the time being and two, that the upcoming Troika report might be massaged to make that a reality.
From Der Spiegel (with our emphasis):
In reality, Merkel has already made up her mind. After long hesitation, she has sided with French President François Hollande and the European Commission. The report from the troika — which consists of the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central Bank (ECB) and which departed on its fact-finding tour last week — will undoubtedly conclude that Greece can remain in the euro zone.
The change in mind-set is down to domino theory.
Where once the chancellor saw Greece as the weakest link in a chain which would be stronger without it, now she sees it as a domino which, if toppled, would put the rest of the set in danger:
Domino theorists argue that the impact on the economy, growth and employment would be catastrophic and incalculable. But one thing remains clear: If Greece falls, Germany will have to pay — and the bill will come to almost exactly €62 billion ($79 billion). This is the colossal sum that the Greeks and their central bank owe the Germans. The entire amount would all have to be written off.

Read more: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/09/10/1152161/german-domino-theory-and-book-cooking/

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