Thursday, July 19, 2012

The Future of Violence in Afghanistan

The failure of the American effort in Afghanistan should force a rethinking of the counterinsurgency (COIN) doctrine that has become canonical in Washington. This doctrine emphasizes building strong central states, attracting popular support through services and development and using military forces to control local populations. It is state building at the point of a gun: the government, as monopolizer of violence and focal point of politics, stands at the center of these efforts. Vast sums of American money and huge numbers of U.S. troops have been invested in trying to create a violence-monopolizing central state in Afghanistan.
The assumptions embedded in this policy are flawed. Historical and contemporary experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq show that militarized state building is only one of several strategies through which governments can “manage violence” and deal with armed actors. States and armed groups can negotiate live-and-let-live spheres of influence, collude over smuggling resources and targeting common enemies, share control of territory or tacitly agree not to escalate violence. States may contain insurgencies rather than trying to eliminate them, accepting the continued existence of insurgency as part of governance. Bargains and deals often develop between states and violent nonstate actors that allow workable politics even without a government monopoly on legitimate violence. These strategies and the wartime political orders that emerge from them can create forms of stability that do not require huge commitments of blood and treasure.
There are four strategies of violence management that governments use: monopolization, political favoritism, containment, and divide and rule. Monopolization involves building state institutions, providing social services, and either destroying or formally co-opting nonstate armed groups. This model of militarized state building is explicit in the FM3-24 Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual, and it guided the 2009 “surge” in Afghanistan. It is a costly and protracted strategy that aims to push the state to the local level and turn it into a society’s dominant specialist in violence.

Read more: http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-future-violence-afghanistan-7207

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