Saturday, July 28, 2012

From American Drought to “Global Catastrophe”

Some poet  invented the name “Arab Spring” as a label for the tsunami of public desperation that last year took down the governments of Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. Poets and Pollyannas saw the events as an upwelling of love for democracy. Realists related them to the spike in world food prices that threatened the survival of whole populations and made them desperate for change — any change.  Now, thanks in large part to events unfolding in the American heartland, get ready for another, worse, spike.
We are running out of superlatives with which to describe the Mid- and Southwestern drought and its effect on this year’s corn and soybean crops. According to this week’s USDA crop update the situation during the previous seven days went from “critical” to, um, worse than that. The drought is the worst in half a century. Of the largest US acreage ever planted in corn (industrial agriculture was crowing about that just a couple of months ago), only one-quarter is still in good condition. (Modest rainfall in drought-stricken areas early this week provided mostly emotional relief; the drought is forecast to continue unabated through October.)
One guesstimate about how this is going to play out, from some financial analysts in Australia, is that the US corn harvest will be about 60 million metric tons short of expectations. For perspective, consider; Argentina, the number two corn-producing country in the world, puts about 25 million tonnes in the crib.  In addition, a heat wave across southern Europe into Ukraine is wilting the corn crop that typically provides 16 per cent of world supplies.

Read more: http://www.dailyimpact.net/2012/07/26/from-american-drought-to-global-catastrophe/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed:+dailyimpact/GIfx+%28The+Daily+Impact%29

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