If you want to understand the intensifying showdown between the
United States and Iran, consider the headline in The Washington
Post on the threat of rapid nuclear proliferation: "Many
Nations Ready to Break into Nuclear Club."
It highlights one of the dangers cited by those who favor military action against Iran. President Barack Obama says that if Iran gets the bomb, "other players in the region would feel it necessary to get their own nuclear weapons. So now you have the prospect of a nuclear arms race in the most volatile region in the world."
A plausible threat? It may sound that way. But it also sounded that way in 1981—when that Washington Post story ran.
Nuclear proliferation is always said to be on the verge of suddenly accelerating, and somehow it never does. In 1981, there were five declared nuclear powers -- the U.S., the Soviet Union, China, Britain and France -- as well as Israel, which was (and is) undeclared.
And today? The number of members added since then is not 15 but three: India, Pakistan and North Korea. Most of the other countries on the list of likely proliferators never came close -- including Argentina, Chile, Morocco and Tunisia. Iraq tried and failed. Libya made an effort and then chose to give up.
Read more: http://reason.com/archives/2012/07/09/the-arms-race-that-wont-happen
It highlights one of the dangers cited by those who favor military action against Iran. President Barack Obama says that if Iran gets the bomb, "other players in the region would feel it necessary to get their own nuclear weapons. So now you have the prospect of a nuclear arms race in the most volatile region in the world."
A plausible threat? It may sound that way. But it also sounded that way in 1981—when that Washington Post story ran.
Nuclear proliferation is always said to be on the verge of suddenly accelerating, and somehow it never does. In 1981, there were five declared nuclear powers -- the U.S., the Soviet Union, China, Britain and France -- as well as Israel, which was (and is) undeclared.
And today? The number of members added since then is not 15 but three: India, Pakistan and North Korea. Most of the other countries on the list of likely proliferators never came close -- including Argentina, Chile, Morocco and Tunisia. Iraq tried and failed. Libya made an effort and then chose to give up.
Read more: http://reason.com/archives/2012/07/09/the-arms-race-that-wont-happen
No comments:
Post a Comment