Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Forget The Details, The End Of The European Crisis Is In Sight

Macro Man

Team Macro Man apologise for the lack of service recently. Last week saw their technical pullback first get Apple'd and then FED'd. And though there were glimmers of the technical turn, it looks as though it has morphed into a "technical pause". Despite the fizzling out of yesterday's Euro summit there has been little sell-off which leaves TMM thinking that there is a chance of the European "Policy by Sloth" may work.

TMM wrote back in December about what they believed the necessary conditions were to bring about an end to the crisis. The classic Anglo-Saxon view (TMM cannot resist the French line) is that the only way out of the crisis is fiscal union. But TMM believe it is far more nuanced than that - strictly, that measures that confirm the path to some sort of fiscal union in the medium term are in place. Specifically, as we wrote back in December, TMM reckon we need to see the following:

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